It was never clear just how devoted Allende was to the limitations he had accepted in 1970. For example, a few months after taking office he told a French revolutionary, Regis Debray, that he had signed as a "tactical necessity."( 66 ) Throughout his regime, he attacked the opposition press and television stations, although he could not quite close them down. For example, as he nationalized the Chilean economy, he was able to starve most newspapers of advertising. He also tried to starve them of newsprint; orchestrated labor problems and plant seizures; juggled prices to attack them; and tried to dry up their finances.( 67 ) Presumably much of the U.S. money spent in Chile was used merely to keep the opposition press alive. In addition Allende moved to replace the judicial system with one based on "socialist legality" in which neighborhood tribunals could seize property.
Allende now tried to temper his revolution to convince the Christian Democrats to form an alliance. That failed, and through 1972 the Chilean economy continued to deteriorate. It probably did not help that beginning 1971 radicalized workers began to demand that the government expropriate their plants. In October 1972 Chilean truck drivers and small shopkeepers struck, afraid that even their very small firms would be seized. By the end of 1972 the Chilean balance of payments was $400 in debt, compared to the $28 million in surplus when Allende took office.( 68 )
Allende now made a key mistake. He invited the Chilean military into his cabinet in hopes that the army could quell growing disorders. Up to that point, in keeping with a long-held tradition, the army had carefully avoided political involvement (several attempted coups had ended in farce largely because of this attitude). Now some form of military rule became quite conceivable.
New congressional elections were due in March 1973. The Chilean army's view was that its role was to establish order so that the elections could proceed. The elections produced another anti-Allende majority, roughly 56 to 44 percent, even though Allende had tried to bring more supporters into the electorate by enfranchising the illiterate (and younger voters).( 69 ) The Chilean Supreme Court and the congress both declared that Allende had violated the constitution, yet Allende seemed unstoppable.
Allende's UP included the MIR, which had begun as a guerilla movement in 1965. Like the Vietnamese Communists, it had advocated revolution via a general strike and uprisings by "popular militias" in the cities, coordinated with a protracted guerilla war in the southern provinces.( 70 ) Its central committee had gone underground in 1969, but Allende had pardoned them when he came to power. In theory his election should have made such action unnecessary, but the MIR strengthened once Allende took power. Allende himself clearly was close to the MIR; he made some of its members part of his personal bodyguard.( 71 )
The movement's chiefs told its followers that Allende's victory had been no more than a temporary setback for the ruling class; he was no Lenin. By mid-1972 it had built a power base, including its communal governments and its militias, in the belts of nationalized plants in Santiago, the Cordon de Curillos.( 72 ) To many middle-class Chileans, the MIR was the illegal arm of Allende's revolution. While his government used existing laws to squeeze them, it winked as the MIR evicted landowners from their properties. The government ordered the police stand aside.( 73 ) There was a widespread belief that the government hoped that its conservative enemies would go outside the law to deal with the MIR, giving it an excuse to crush them.( 74 ) Through 1972 Chilean society increasingly polarized, right-wing militias forming to oppose the MIR. In January 1973 Allende said that if the military tried a coup he would go underground in Chile rather than flee to Cuba.( 75 )
Allende certainly showed no interest in curbing the MIR, and his government helped arm it. Late in 1971 unmarked Cuban aircraft began arriving at the airport in Santiago every Saturday night, their deliveries bypassing customs. These shipments ended after they attracted attention. In 1972, however, it was reported that the Chilean national airline, LAN, was shipping in weapons.( 76 ) Two government-owned metal companies began making bazookas, and rubber truncheons and government-made gas masks were in evidence at many left-wing rallies from late 1972 on. Huge caches of mostly Czech-made arms were found after the coup, and the government claimed that over two thousand foreign weapons instructors (including Cubans, Czechs, and East Germans) were in the country (the government had covered their arrival by not releasing immigration statistics for the past two years). The instructors' presence in the industrial belt had first been reported early in 1973. The MIR militia seemed to be Allende's private army.
Having brought in the army to restore order, Allende had to allow it to search for the illegal arms the MIR had cached. Through the summer of 1973 there were frequent clashes as this was done. However, Allende refused the army's demands that the guerilla bases, many of them in the cities, be eliminated or that the MIR be outlawed.( 77 )
Allende had curbed leftist guerillas only twice. In July 1971 an extremist group, the VOP, whose members Allende had pardoned, killed an ex-minister of the interior. The Christian Democrats demanded that VOP and other paramilitary groups be crushed, but Allende attacked only the VOP; he did not touch the MIR. About a year later a previously unknown "16 July Commando" unsuccessfully attacked Allende's home. There was speculation that the real motive had been to give Allende an excuse to attack Chilean conservatives.
Castro had known Allende for years. When he visited in November and December 1971 he chided Allende for his constitutionalism; Socialism, for Castro, required a dictatorship backed by real fear.( 78 ) Castro made his Santiago embassy his largest in the world; its personnel outnumbered those of the Chilean foreign ministry. Reportedly Castro supplied Allende's personal bodyguard, which was distinct from the detectives surrounding him. One of his men, who had been in Bolivia with Che, married Allende's daughter Beatriz. The Cuban DGI was active in Santiago. Given Castro's rapprochement with the Soviets after the 1968 Czech invasion, the visible Cuban activity was surely carried out with Soviet agreement or even encouragement, but at a slight distance. That the Chilean Communist Party within the UP advised caution also suggests that the Soviets did not want to be held responsible for the coming takeover.
To many on the Right, Allende seemed to be Sukarno in 1965. He was not quite a Communist, but he was the Communists' (or radical leftists') path to power. His private army would destroy the last barrier, the constitutionalist military. The word "Jakarta" began to appear on walls in Santiago.
To many on the Left, Allende was the best chance in years to establish a new "socialist" regime. Allende welcomed refugees from the many failed left-wing operations throughout South America. Ultimately Chile would presumably have become their base. Nixon and Kissinger had been right: Chile might not have any direct strategic value, but its fall would probably have had important effects throughout South America.
The Soviets provided support in the form of about $400 million in project aid and import crdits through late 1972.( 79 ) Unfortunately what Allende needed was imports from the west, and for that he had to have more hard currency -- which, before the fall 1973 explosion of oil prices, the Soviets lacked. They had, moreover, just made a huge wheat deal with Nixon, which may have consumed what hard currency they could have spared. Thus in December 1972 Allende asked the Soviets for $500 million in credits and hard currency, and got only more useless trade credits and an offer of $50 million in arms (which was not made public). Chilean foreign exchange had been exhausted by April 1973. It is not clear to what extent Allende's government managed to obtain Western European, Latin American, and even Chinese credits, but clearly they were not enough.( 80 )
The March elections and subsequent court and congressional actions split the Chilean military. Initially its commander, General Prats, wanted to continue within the government. The army was by no means wedded to the existing social system. Like many others in Latin America, it had absorbed the American idea that society had to be reformed to survive. However, the MIR presented a distinct threat, and by 1972 its agitators were trying to undermine military discipline. Moreover, the military had failed to control rising violence, partly because radicals in Allende's government refused to control violence from the Left.
Tension increased; Allende's friend, Regis Debray, said that "eveyone knew" that the president was playing for time "to organize, to arm, and to co-ordinate the military forces of the UP parties."( 81 ) In June 1973 a right-wing militia, Patria y Libertad, tried to coordinate a coup with a Santiago-based armored regiment. Word leaked, and the coup fizzled. One column did make for the center of the city. It was noteworthy that Allende's supporters, the Santiago workers, did not come out, as Allende expected, to oppose the coup. Prats resigned in August after a delegation of generals told him that he no longer had their confidence. Allende appointed another constitutionalist general, Augusto Pinochet, to replace him.